Seth Lugo pitching for the Kansas City Royals; CC by License 2.0
Seth Lugo has completely shattered expectations in his first season in Kansas City. The Royals signed Lugo in the 2024 offseason to a two-year, $30 million deal with a player option for the 2026 season. This move was swept aside, as players like Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamammoto stole most of the spotlight in this most recent offseason. However, Lugo has revived his career by pitching like an ace for the Royals. The 34-year-old made his first All-Star team in 2024. His story is one of the most interesting in the ‘24 MLB season, and Seth Lugo’s performance this year will certainly earn him a lot of respect from the baseball community.
Lugo was selected in the 34th round of the 2011 MLB draft by the New York Mets. The 1,032nd overall pick started his career in 2016 as a pseudo-starting pitcher. He split his 17 games with eight starts on the mound and the rest of his appearances out of the bullpen. The Mets did not know how to utilize Lugo’s arm, as they would never commit to him becoming a full-time starter during his seven seasons with the team.
In 2023, Lugo signed with the San Diego Padres. This season was the season where he proved he could handle himself as a starting pitcher. In 26 starts and 146.1 innings, he put up a 3.57 ERA with 140 strikeouts and a 118 ERA+ (18% better than the league average). This season earned him his contract with the Royals, and he hasn’t looked back since.
Before diving into Lugo’s percentile rankings for the ‘24 season, a personal anecdote is appropriate and will reveal my reasoning for writing this article: I drafted Seth Lugo 246th overall in the TDA Fantasy Baseball league. However, based on his lackluster percentiles on Baseball Savant, I decided his luck would eventually run out. I could not have been more wrong. At this point in the season in our league, he is the #1 starting pitcher by points and just threw a complete game against the White Sox. Sometimes the Savant percentiles lie and cause regret in fantasy leagues worldwide.
Taking a look at Lugo’s standard statistics from this season would impress any fan of the game. He leads the American League in innings pitched (136), batters faced (543), and ERA + (180). He also leads the American League’s qualified starting pitchers in ERA with a 2.38. Furthermore, as mentioned above, he just hurled a complete game to pair nicely with his 12 wins on the season. Not bad for a starter who was banished to the bullpen in Queens not too long ago.
However, the most interesting part of Lugo’s performance this season is that his underlying percentiles are not impressive. Most of the league’s dominant arms have dominant pitching percentiles to back up their success. Not Seth Lugo. In fact, this case may end up being one of the most strange, lucky, Cy-Young caliber performances in recent history.
As far as Baseball Savant’s “Run-Value” percentiles go, Lugo is among baseball’s best. His overall Pitching Run-Value lands in the 100th percentile, with his Fastball Run-Value and Breaking Run-Value both sitting in the 98th. These rankings and a 64th in Offspeed Run-Value and 84th in walk percentage are the only ranks that stand out for Lugo. All of his other rankings point to a pitcher who is nothing special, completely contradictory to the kind of season Lugo is having.
The most telling sign of the luck Lugo is having are his expected stats. His xERA and xBA are in the 52nd and 40th percentile, respectively. His xERA is a whole 1.49 runs higher than his actual ERA. His xBA is 29 points higher than his real batting average against. Other concerning percentiles include a 40th in average exit velocity, 36th in Hard-Hit%, 33rd in Whiff%, and 41st in Chase%. One could see why I chose to drop him early on in the season. His ranks heavily imply he is due for some regression. But Lugo refuses to come back down to Earth.
A factor that could be causing this unprecedented success is the fact that this is Lugo’s first season in the American League. This could be causing opposing hitters to take longer than expected to adjust to his repertoire. Speaking of repertoire, Lugo is unique as he uses nine different pitches to collect outs. According to Baseball Savant, he throws a four-seam fastball, sinker, curveball, slider, slurve, cutter, changeup, sweeper, and split-finger. Having nine unique pitches and pitching in a new league is certainly a combination that can lead to some success.
Overperforming or not, Seth Lugo is having a career year on the mound in 2024. He has been in Cy-Young conversations all year, and his numbers have only improved the more games he pitches. He is well on his way to set career highs in innings pitched and strikeouts. Kansas City has emerged as one of baseball’s most exciting teams, and Seth Lugo has been the most unexpected star to help the Royals in their rebuilding process.
