Welcome back, everyone! And if you are a first-time reader of this masterpiece of literature, welcome to the Lawrence Butler edition of Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players.
I was thinking about highlighting Butler a month ago, but at the time I was not completely sold on what he was doing. He had an incredible month of July, slashing .363/.408/.802 with 10 homers and 27 RBI. But that month came out of nowhere and there was no way he was going to maintain an .802 SLG and 1.210 OPS.
Before buying stock in Lawrence Butler, I wanted to make sure the return on investment was going to pay off.
In August, Butler (not unexpectedly) cooled down somewhat at the plate with a .266/.301/.585 slash line. But he hit eight more homers and drove in 18 runs. Over the course of a full season that would be 48 homers and 108 RBI with a stellar .886 OPS.
While the power is great, there has been a massive decline in his strikeout percentage since July 1. After posting rates of 29.2%, 31.3% and 34.5% the first three months of the season, his strikeout rate fell to 19.4% in July, then to 17.5% in August. So far in September, it is at 9.5%. That decline plus the consistent power display is enough for me to want to invest in Butler as he is certainly an Up-and-Coming Dynasty Player.
Career Statistics
| YEAR | G | HR | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minors | 403 | 54 | 232 | 74 | 11.8 | 29.3 | .257 | .344 | .439 |
| 2023 | 42 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 3.1 | 27.1 | .211 | .240 | .342 |
| 2024 | 107 | 21 | 54 | 13 | 7.8 | 22.8 | .266 | .320 | .525 |
| MLB | 149 | 25 | 64 | 13 | 6.6 | 23.9 | .251 | .476 | .476 |
Lawrence Butler has been an intriguing player since the A’s selected him in the sixth round of the 2018 draft. They saw a player who had a nice power-speed combination, allowing him to easily be a 20-20 player.
He showed off his speed during his time in the minors by stealing 74 bases in 88 attempts. And in his brief time in the majors, he is a perfect 13-for-13 in the stolen base department.
Butler also showed off his power early in his minor league career, hitting 19 homers in 102 games in 2019 at the Class A and High-A levels. In 89 minor league games in 2023, he slugged 15 homers.
But with the good has come the bad. That bad, in Butler’s case, was a lot of swing and miss and turns back to the dugout. He had a career 29.3% strikeout rate in the minors. But the good news is by 2023 that strikeout rate was down to 18.9% combined in Double A and Triple A.
2024 Splits
| MONTH | G | HR | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Mar/April | 29 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13.5 | 29.2 | .195 | .303 | .325 |
| May | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9.4 | 31.3 | .138 | .219 | .138 |
| June | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 34.5 | .179 | .172 | .250 |
| July | 24 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 7.1 | 19.4 | .363 | .408 | .802 |
| August | 26 | 8 | 18 | 4 | 5.8 | 17.5 | .266 | .301 | .585 |
| September | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.8 | 9.5 | .400 | .429 | .700 |
Lawrence Butler was given a chance to show what he could do in Oakland last season and the initial grade was a D, at best. In 42 games he slashed .211/.240/.342 with a 3.1% walk rate and 27.1% strikeout rate.
The A’s hoped the little bit of seasoning Butler got in 2023 would allow him to hit the ground running this season. That was certainly not the case. Butler looked completely overmatched the first three months of the season. You can see for yourself how bad he was at the plate.
What Changed?
Butler didn’t make drastic changes at the plate. But the biggest change is how he is standing with his feet closer together – basically at shoulder width apart. Before July, Butler had a very wide stance in the box. He would then compound that with a leg kick that led him to stride even more toward the pitcher.
He was basically eliminating his legs from his swing and hitting only with his upper body. Now, the stance is more compact and his stride toward the pitcher is much shorter as well. The has allowed him to keep his head level and get his legs into his short, compact swing.
You can look at the graphic to see the payoff. Since July 1, only three American League players have a higher slugging percentage than Butler – Bobby Witt, Vladimir Guerro Jr., and Aaron Judge. That is some pretty good company to be in.
If you don’t have Lawrence Butler already placed on your roster, it is getting harder to add him to your team, at least in Yahoo leagues as he is 80% rostered. ESPN players are not drinking the Butler Kool-Aid yet as he is owned in only 49% of leagues.
The asking price for him in a trade is obviously a lot higher now, but you never know how someone values a player they have until you ask around. If you use the argument that he has only had TWO good months during his major league career and thus still a gamble, you may be able to make a good deal for yourself. In the long run, as long as you don’t think you are overpaying, then adding Butler for next year would be a very solid move.
