The 2024 Major League Baseball season is about 11 weeks old (over a third of the way done already!), which means we finally have meaningful numbers that count to start evaluating our fantasy squads. With only 27 weeks in the fantasy baseball season, even a few weeks of information should help guide us to decisions about who deserves a valuable roster spot on our teams and who deserves the bench or deserves to be cut.
With the small sample size caveat pushed to the side for this exercise, most players are about 65-70 games into the 2024 regular season, so this piece will look at some MLB fantasy assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall through the past couple of weeks of Major League Baseball games.
Fantasy Baseball Risers
David Hamilton (2B/SS), Boston Red Sox
David Hamilton does a lot of things really well, apparently. But he does one thing EXCEPTIONALLY well: steal bases. Stealing 13 bases in 42 games is good, right? That pace for almost 60 steals has been a welcome surprise for any fantasy managers who added rookie David Hamilton hoping to get a little help in average, runs, and steals. It turns out they are getting a TON of help in average and runs, and the steals are what put him at the top of hitter leaderboards over the last month.
The speed should come as no surprise. In 2021, Hamilton stole 41 bases in Single-A. He then stole 71 in Double-A in 2022 and 59 across Triple-A and the majors last season. Hamilton is the sixth-fastest shortstop in terms of sprint speed, according to Statcast. That puts him behind base-stealing legends like Trea Turner, Bobby Witt Jr., and Elly De La Cruz. I find the .376 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) a bit concerning, but guys with uber-speed always have high numbers in that category.
Somehow, David Hamilton is available in 70% of Yahoo fantasy leagues. If your team needs steals, there is likely no better option.
TJ Friedl (OF), Cincinnati Reds
Have you seen what TJ Friedl is doing since he came off the IL on May 26th? In the last 15 days, he has three home runs, three steals, 11 RBI, and nine runs. Is he Aaron Judge or Kyle Tucker? No, but for someone who was drafted as a fifth outfielder at best during the spring, his production has been borderline top-30 in that span. Just in the past week, he has two games with a home run, a steal, and multiple RBI. That kind of super-sized combo meal can win you a week.
Friedl’s hard-hit rate is up this year (30.6%), which helps. But it’s the supercharged 90.1% zone contact rate that’s driving the success this season. Combine that with his 40% flyball rate, and Friedl may yet have a chance to surpass his career-high in home runs last year with 18. After 18 bombs and 27 steals last year, it’s clear it was no fluke and a .239 BABIP shows there could be more positive regression coming.
Miles Mikolas (SP), St. Louis
At first glance, the 4.85 ERA for Miles Mikolas this season does not inspire confidence, but something clicked four starts ago. Mikolas has a quality start in four straight games including a seven inning, no runs, six strikeout masterpiece against the Pirates last time out. The wins haven’t followed Mikolas’ great starts, but the 35-year-old is once again relevant for fantasy leagues.
On the surface, it doesn’t appear much has changed for Mikolas this year. His 6.8 K/9 are almost identical to his career average. Same with his walk rate, HR/9, and ground ball rate. What he has done, however, is limit hard contact against his pitches this year. His barrel rate against and average exit velocity are both two points lower than last year. If you can stomach the low strikeouts, Mikolas may have unlocked the secret to strong ratios the rest of the year.
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Shea Langeliers (C), Oakland Athletics
I don’t know if you can find a bigger split between two months than what Shea Langeliers has done between May and June. In May, Langeliers hit .250/.333/.588 with six home runs and 11 RBI. In June, he basically looks like he has never swung a bat before. He is hitting .111/.143/.111 with no home runs and one RBI. Those Oakland hitters were fun while they lasted, weren’t they?
The disappointing thing is that Langeliers should be hitting much better than he is. His hard-hit rate is up, his barrel rate is up, his exit velocity is up, his contact rate is up, and his HR/FB rate is higher. We can point to Langeliers right now and point out how unlucky he is. His .206 BABIP is the second-worst mark in the league (only Josh Naylor is worse). But his first pitch strike percentage is almost 70%, so he has to learn to start setting himself up for success more than he has so far in 2024.
Matt Vierling (3B/OF), Detroit Tigers
What, you mean Matt Vierling is not the player who hit 8-for-16 with four home runs and nine RBI in a three-day span in late May? Color me shocked. In the seven games before he homered on Wednesday, Vierling was 2-for-23 with no home runs, no RBI, and no runs. After a weekend gifted to him by the baseball gods, Vierling has reverted back into what he normally is: a replacement-level player.
Vierling’s 2024 season is just a carbon copy of his 2023 campaign ( he hit .261/.329/.388) and there hasn’t been much growth. His hard-hit rate is identical, his strikeout rate is the same, his BABIP is a couple of points off, and his exit velocity is slightly higher. In fact, the only considerable changes have been a lower walk rate and no steals in 2024. Vierling was a nice story for the Detroit Tigers for one series, but the clock struck midnight on this Cinderella story.
Triston McKenzie (SP), Cleveland Guardians
Triston McKenzie is the anti-Miles Mikolas right now, not sniffing a quality start since May 17th and really struggling in that timeframe. In his last four games, McKenzie has a 6.10 ERA with 10 walks and a .605 slugging percentage against. And while all those things are bad, it’s the long ball that has really plagued him this year. He has eight home runs allowed in those last four games, and now has 14 allowed on the year.
McKenzie’s home run per nine innings rate (1.85) is the highest of his five-year career. The likely culprit is a combination of a flyball rate over 50% and a barrel rate that is over 10% higher than last year. Add in the lowest strikeout rate of McKenzie’s career (8.6/nine innings) and we can start to see why the shine of his early season performances is starting to wear off. This is all fixable, but McKenzie is not a confident start in fantasy right now.
