Can anyone stop the Mets? That’s not a question I expected to be asking this year, unless it was “Can anyone stop the Mets from signing marquee free agents?” or “Can anyone stop the Mets from imploding in the most Mets-y way imaginable?” But as the National League Division Series starts, the Mets are on one of those team-of-destiny runs that feels like a self-fulfilling prophecy. There’s no deficit they can’t overcome, no lead they can’t squander and then retake in the next inning. They’re upping the degree of difficulty significantly starting Saturday, though: The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball all year, and they’re rested and ready for what promises to be an exciting series.
A tale of the tape – Francisco Lindor is good at x, Bryce Harper is good at y, Zack Wheeler and Kodai Senga will square off in Game 1, so on and so forth – doesn’t feel like the right way to describe this series. Instead, I’m going to focus on how each team tries to win, and how these plans are most likely to go awry.
The Mets have thrived offensively this year with a simple blueprint: power at the top of the lineup and Jose Iglesias somehow doing everything else. Lindor is so good that he’s almost an offense unto himself: He led the Mets in runs (107), RBI (91), steals (29), on-base percentage (.344), slugging percentage (.500), and pretty much everything else you can imagine, except for home runs (33). In that category, he finished one off the team lead behind Pete Alonso. Alonso had a down year in 2024, but he’s very good at the skill the Mets most need from him: clobbering homers to drive in Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and sometimes Iglesias. Mark Vientos functions as a second Alonso; he’s there to hit homers or advance runners with situational hitting, but he’s fresh out of situational hitting.
This plan has worked pretty well all year, and it’s worked particularly well in the string of playoff and playoff-like games they’ve won this week. The top five hitters combined to drive in all the runs in Monday’s playoff-clinching win against the Braves. Iglesias and Vientos keyed Tuesday’s victory over the Brewers. A three-run Alonso homer was all the scoring they needed to send Milwaukee home Thursday night. It’s hardly an unsustainable plan; the Mets were seventh in wRC+ (109) and also runs scored (768) this year, near-doppelgängers for the Phillies.
What could go wrong with New York’s offense? It’s pretty easy to understand. If Lindor, Alonso, and Vientos aren’t supplying the power, runs are hard to come by. Even with Iglesias turning in a career-best season as a slap-hitting spark plug, the Mets play station to station. They’re one of the worst baserunning teams in the majors. Lindor is the biggest exception to this rule, though Starling Marte, Tyrone Taylor, and Nimmo are also willing to take an extra base here and there. For the most part, runs come either from the combined excellence of the team’s best hitters or from stringing together a ton of singles to drive home some of the plodders.
Shutting down the Mets might sound simple – keep their good hitters off the board – but it’s not easy. Alonso and Vientos crush fastballs. Nimmo and Lindor excel against chase-seeking secondaries. Iglesias will swing at anything and frequently make contact – and this year, he’s turning most of that contact into flared singles. One-trick pony pitchers who lean on one or the other of a nasty slider or huge fastball will run into trouble against the Mets.
Luckily for the Phillies, that doesn’t describe their starters at all. Wheeler is a five-trick pony, at minimum: He throws six pitches, and only his split-change is below average. He also has great command and pitches deep into games. I mean, obviously he does: He’s one of the very best pitchers in baseball, and he has been since the day he went to Philadelphia. Aaron Nola is an able second banana; he’ll have his greatest advantage against Alonso and Vientos thanks to a hammer curveball.
Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez will have their work cut out for them in this series – lefty sinkerballers don’t match up well against the Mets’ righty power bats. Still, they’re excellent options as no. 3 and 4 starters. The third and fourth games of the series are sandwiched by travel days, and Wheeler and Nola generally give the bullpen a break on their starts. That sets the Phillies up to go bullpen-heavy when their lefties are on the mound and attack the top of the Mets order with a succession of great relievers.
The Philadelphia bullpen was one of the best in the majors all year, so much so that it is still a top unit despite trading away several contributing relievers at the deadline. That strength will be blunted somewhat against the Mets, though; New York absolutely crushed lefty pitching this year, and the Phillies have three standout southpaw relievers. The best spot to deploy a lefty is probably against the Lindor-Vientos/Iglesias-Nimmo portion of the order, but that’s not even very good.
Still, the Phillies are deep. Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, and even José Ruiz bring strikeout stuff from the right side. If I were managing the Phillies, I’d keep rotating matchups to prevent Vientos and Alonso from seeing any of these arms too often. I’d mix in some of the good lefties against them in low-leverage spots, and maybe even arrange for a Taijuan Walker sighting.
Controlling the top half of the lineup is a lot of the challenge when facing the Mets, and the Phillies certainly have the arms to do it. But baseball being what it is, that’s no guarantee of success. Lindor, Nimmo, and Alonso have hit the biggest homers of the year for the Mets, all three this week. They came off of righty relievers with ERAs of 3.67, 1.98, and 1.25, respectively. One way this series could go: Philadelphia sends its best pitchers at the Mets, and the Mets come out victorious.
Of course, the Phillies get to bat too. In some ways, they’re built similarly to their rivals; the top of their order features two power threats and a multi-talented shortstop, and the rest of the hitters aren’t nearly as good. In their case, though, the shortstop seems like a pretty clear third banana instead of the entire offensive identity of the team. Harper and Kyle Schwarber are the Phillies offense in many ways. They have similar skillsets and have produced similar value this year. You’ll struggle to make them chase. They’ll swing out of their shoes trying to hit homers. They might strike out as a result – but they tend to do so on their own terms, taking huge hacks at pitches that they’ll obliterate if they make contact.
Trea Turner bats between them and does a little bit of everything. I’m expecting him to amp up the baserunning aggression in October; this was by far the worst baserunning year of his career, but the playoffs seem like a good time to eschew smart long-term health management and put your foot on the gas pedal. Even when he isn’t stealing bases and making aggressive advancements, though, he’s a great hitter. He’ll get to face a ton of southpaws thanks to his lineup position between two lefty sluggers, and he’s been 10% better with the platoon advantage over his lengthy career.
Like its counterpart in New York, the Philly lineup falls off after its top guys. Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm bat fourth and fifth in some order most days, and at times they’ve been great: Castellanos has a 132 wRC+ in the second half of the season, and Bohm made the All-Star team thanks to a scorching first half. But that hot streak from Castellanos brought his career mark with the Phillies up to a 103 wRC+, and 105 for the 2024 season. Meanwhile, Bohm cooled off hard in the second half (90 wRC+).
I think the key to the Mets offense is how much the top guys can do damage against very good opposition. I think that the key to the Phillies lineup, on the other hand, is whether the bottom half can make life easier for Harper and friends. Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh look like platoon bats at this point in their careers. Johan Rojas and Edmundo Sosa are the other half of those platoons, but they hardly strike fear into opposing pitchers. J.T. Realmuto is the wild card here; he got better as the year went on, in stark contrast to what you’d expect from a 33-year-old catcher. If he’s more MVP candidate than defensive specialist who can hit a little, the lineup will look deeper and scarier for Mets pitchers. If he and Castellanos turn into pumpkins, the team might be relying on Wheeler and Nola to win a lot of 2-1 games.
Speaking of 2-1 duels, the Mets rotation lines up fairly well against the Phillies, though it simply doesn’t have the same firepower as Philadelphia does in its rotation. Senga will get the start in Game 1, but with only 19 2/3 innings pitched across all levels this year because of several injuries, he’s probably not going to pitch deep into the game. Tylor Megill would’ve been next in line to draw that start, so he’ll presumably be on hand as a long reliever if necessary. Senga’s appearance could be extremely short; the last time he threw multiple competitive innings came in the middle of July in a minor league game, and even that appearance lasted only three innings.
Luis Severino was Senga’s replacement atop the rotation this year; depending on how Senga looks in Game 1, either he or Severino would presumably draw a Game 5 assignment. Thanks to the way the schedule lines up, Severino would be on regular rest for that one even after he pitches Game 2, a boon to the Mets after they played five games in four days this week. The Senga/Megill game is the toughest one to figure out; I think that it will be a de facto bullpen game unless Senga looks dominant and covers at least a few innings, which is basically unknowable at this point.
When the series shifts back to New York, the Mets will bring out their lefties: Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana. Manaea was Severino’s equal this year, and I think I’d take him over Severino if I had to choose one of them for one game only, but his rest schedule won’t allow him to go twice in the series. Quintana is still the same pitcher – he’s crafty and can still spin a nice curveball, but his great talent is in bulk innings, not dominance. If he can get the Phillies chasing in the early going, he might put up a start to rival his six scoreless innings against the Brewers in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series. If he starts falling behind in the count, it might be a long night for the Mets, and a short one for him.
I expect the Mets to be extremely careful about letting Schwarber and Harper see the same pitcher for a third time. I’d be willing to give New York’s two lefty starters a chance the third time through, but I wouldn’t let Megill try it if the game is close, and I wouldn’t feel great about Senga’s (assuming he can even face 18+ batters) or Severino’s chances. That puts the team in a tricky spot, because it doesn’t have many effective lefty relievers. David Peterson is the best option, but he’s a swingman, not a high-leverage arm. Danny Young is the only other lefty on the squad, and while he’s a classic sinker/slider LOOGY, I wouldn’t be tripping all over myself to get him into the game against two top-tier sluggers.
In a way, though, that lack of lefties could be freeing. Platoon matchups aren’t as important as just using good pitchers, and if the Mets aren’t forcing themselves to play the handedness game, they can turn their best relievers loose against the top of the lineup and work everything else out later. Edwin Díaz is comfortable entering games before the ninth inning and also comfortable getting more than three outs; I’d take him over Peterson and Young any day. Reed Garrett, José Buttó, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek could all draw lefty-slugger duty as well. The key will be varying up the looks while deploying good relievers in good spots, which is easier said than done. Carlos Mendoza has done a good job of it so far, though. He’ll get a chance to sink or swim on a bigger stage starting Saturday.
Because of the structure of this article, it probably seems like I think the series is a toss-up. I don’t; the lineups might be similar, but the rotations aren’t. I’d call the teams evenly matched in Games 3 and 4, but Wheeler is miles better than anyone on the Mets staff. That’s two games where the Phillies will have a big advantage in the early innings. Nola is no slouch either. ZiPS gives the Phillies a massive 66% chance of advancing thanks to their edge in starting pitching. Gambling markets are nearly as bullish; they have the Phillies around 65% to win the series. Our simple projection-based model gives them a 64% chance; PECOTA has it 60/40. The Phillies are definitely the better team.
A less intrepid preview writer might leave it at that. I’ll go out on a limb, though, and say that I think those odds are too low on the Mets. They aren’t 50% to win this series, obviously. The Phillies are better-rested and won the NL East by six games. But the two teams had the same BaseRuns record. The Mets didn’t just get hot this week; they have the best record in baseball since June 1. They’ve outscored the Phillies over that stretch and allowed fewer runs. They were truly abysmal in the early going this year, and full-season stats and projections do a better job of predicting playoff success than arbitrary-endpoint streaks, but this isn’t some scrappy underdog squad. The Mets are legit and quite capable of going toe-to-toe with anyone in this juggernaut-light year.
So my prediction? Mets in four. I’m going against what the numbers say, and I don’t think I’m 50% likely to be right. But I do think that the broader baseball public is too confident in Philly’s chances, and I like going against the grain. So there you have it. In a matchup where the teams are more alike than they are different, small edges could determine the series. Gimme “OMG” remixes with Pitbull over a will-they-won’t-they relationship with “Dancing On My Own,” particularly if they aren’t going with the original Robyn version. And if I pick the Mets and then they get drubbed in three lopsided games? Well, what’s more Mets-y than that? It’s a no-lose proposition.
