Forrest Gump said, “Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get.” I always assumed that since Forrest was an optimistic simpleton that he viewed every piece in the box as good, so it would just be different variations of good. But even the most ardent chocolate lover would acknowledge that not all chocolate is good. My 230-pound, plump Asian body is proof that I like chocolate, but if I bite into one with raspberry filling, I convulse like a Darwin selection candidate grabbing the electric fence. A chocolate connoisseur who indulges in Vigdis Rosenkilde bars would likely barf if given a Hersey’s bar. There are some things that are universally agreed upon, though. Like getting slipped a Mickey Finn, which is, according to the good Google machine, a drink laced with an incapacitating agent, particularly chloral hydrate, given to someone without their knowledge with the intent to incapacitate them or “knock them out.” But if someone slipped Mickey Moniak of the Los Angeles Angels onto your fantasy teams recently, you’d be very, very happy. Let’s dig in.
Moniak is 26 years old, 6-foot-2, 195 pounds, and bats from the left side. He was selected by the Philadelphia Phillies with the number one overall pick in the 2016 MLB draft. In 2022, Moniak was traded to the Angels.
Throughout his minor league career, the walk rate was in the 6 to 8 percent range while the strikeout rate was in the low-20s. The power was middling at first but then started surfacing in 2019 when the ISO was .187. Moniak stole double-digit bases in three seasons and hit at least 10 home runs in two.
He made his first appearance in the majors during the 2021 season with the Phillies. He received 37 plate appearances and slashed .091/.167/.182 with one homer. The walk rate was 8.1%, strikeout rate was 43.2% and the ISO was .091. The BABIP was only .125, though.
The following season, he accrued 112 plate appearances and things weren’t much better. While he hit three homers and stole a base, the slash was .170/.207/.302 with a 3.6% walk rate, 39.3% strikeout rate, and .132 ISO.
Last season, Moniak proved that the light at the end of the tunnel wasn’t a mirage, as he slashed .280/.307/.495 with 14 home runs and six stolen bases in 323 plate appearances. The ISO was a robust .215. Not all was rainbows and unicorns, though, as the walk rate was still only 2.8%, the strikeout rate was 35% and the BABIP was an elevated .397.
So far this season, Moniak is slashing .233/.275/.398 with 12 home runs and six stolen bases in 360 plate appearances. The walk rate is 4.7%, strikeout rate is 26.4% and the ISO is at .165. The BABIP is .288.
Moniak struggled early on. In April, the strikeout rate was 31.3% with a .067 ISO. He was unlucky with a .205 BABIP but the average exit velocity was a paltry 83.1 mph with a hard hit rate of 22.5%. He was pulling the ball 50% of the time and the barrel rate was 7.5%.
In May, things improved, as the strikeout rate was only 24.2% and the average EV spiked to 88.2 mph. The hard hit rate was 31.3% but the pull rate was only 35.4 percent with a 6.3% barrel rate.
June was when it looked like he started getting comfortable. The ISO was .171 with a 38% hard hit rate. He went back to pulling the ball 50% of the time and the line drive rate was at 28.6% after being 12.5 and 10.5% during the first two months. The walk rate was 8.3% but that looks like an outlier.
In July, the walk rate went back down to 2.7% but the strikeout rate was only 17.6%. Small sample size outlier alert. The ISO was .155 but the average EV was 90.7 mph, the first time in the 90s. The barrel rate of 11.9% was the first time in double digits.
Finally, in August, the .338 ISO, 52.1% hard hit rate, 12.5% barrel rate, and 91.4 mph average EV have translated to six home runs. The walk rate is at 2.8% while the strikeout rate is 27.8%. He’s been pulling the ball 54.2% but he’s been hitting more ground balls, as the GB/FB is above 1 for the first time this season. The BABIP is .405, though, and is fueling the .338/.375/.676 slash.
The big things for me are that he chases so many pitches outside the zone and has a lot of swing and miss to his game. Over the last three months, the chase rate has been over 40%, with a 43.4% number in August. There are only nine players in MLB with a chase rate above 40%. The swinging strike rate is in the teens as well.
Does this mean he cannot be successful?
Of course not, as plenty of good players have high chase rates with elevated swinging strike rates. Salvador Perez, Yainer Diaz, Nick Castellanos, and Julio Rodriguez are but a few examples. That said, all have had extended periods of showcasing their outlier abilities.
My initial reaction was to fade Moniak but I like taking a chance. There will likely be regression but sometimes regression doesn’t happen right away. With only a few weeks left in the season, there’s a chance he continues the heater until the end. He started the season off slow but continued to improve until he got to where he is now. Let’s not forget that he’s 26 years old, entering his prime, and is a former number one overall pick. In addition, he’s 85th percentile in sprint speed. The best part, though, is that he’s likely free and is an easy drop if he comes back down to earth.
