Stay. In. Yo. Lane. At times, one must but it is not something that should be admonished at all times. We Grow. We learn. The Universe morphs, forcing us to adapt. Even if I’m 90 years old, driving on the highway in the very right lane, if there’s someone driving 50 mph, you best believe, or at least I hope that I’m clicking the blinker down, mad dogging the side mirror, turning the steering wheel to the left, putting the pedal to the metal and passing that slow poke. What about when you’re successfully driving in your lane when that lane is picked up, turned 180 degrees, and placed on the other side of the divider? That’s what happened to Lane Thomas this season, and the results haven’t been pretty. Let’s dig in to see if there’s any hope because he’s been dropped in around 10% of ESPN leagues.
Thomas is 28 years old, 6-foot, 191 pounds, and bats from the right side. He was selected in the fifth round of the 2014 MLB Draft by the Toronto Blue Jays. Three years later he was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals, where he made his MLB debut. In 2021, the Washington Nationals acquired him via trade. He spent three seasons in the nation’s capital before being traded to the Cleveland Guardians at the trade deadline this year.
Throughout his minor league career, the strikeout was in the low to mid 20 percent range. He showed off his speed, notching double-digit steals three times. The batting average was in the .250 area while the ISO was in the .125 pocket.
His MLB debut in 2019 with the Cardinals went well, as he slashed .316/.409/.684 with a 9.1% walk rate, 18.2% strikeout rate, and .368 ISO in 44 plate appearances. The next season, though, he only received 40 plate appearances and slashed .111/.200/.250 with a 32.5% strikeout rate and .139 ISO. The beauty of small sample sizes!
At the ripe age of 26 years old, he became a full-time player with the Nationals in 2022, and his physical maturity and experience certainly manifested. In 548 plate appearances during the 2022 MLB season, Thomas slashed .241/.301/.404 with a 7.5% walk rate, 24.1% strikeout rate and .163 ISO. He hit 17 home runs and stole eight bases.
The following season was his Mona Lisa, as he hit 28 home runs, stole 20 bases, scored 101 runs, and drove in 86 in 682 plate appearances. The walk rate was 5.3%, the strikeout rate was 25.8%, the ISO was a robust .201 and the slash was .268/.315/.468.
In his first 341 plate appearances this season, Thomas only hit eight home runs but stole a whopping 28 bases. The walk rate was 9.4%, the strikeout rate was only 21.1% and the ISO was .153 while slashing .253/.331/.407.
Then his lane was lifted up, spun around, and, as he clicked his spikes three times and wished he was back in DC, Thomas landed in Cleveland.
And Thomas has not turned into a pumpkin. More like a rock. Hey, Cleveland supposedly rocks so…
In 50 plate appearances, he’s slashing .109/.180/.152 with an 8% walk rate, 40% strikeout rate and .043 ISO.
The first and most obvious thing that needs to be mentioned is that he went from the National League to the American League. New ballparks. New pitchers. New hecklers. I wasn’t able to find a list of players who were traded from one league to the other, but Jeff Zimmerman wrote back in 2013, “Is There An Adjustment Time for Players Changing Leagues?” TLDR, yes.
The thing is, there isn’t much time for us fantasy nerds.
Remember about five inches up? Something about small sample sizes?
Well, it’s only been 50 plate appearances. And there are some numbers that could portend for some good times ahead. The BABIP has only been .192 but the average exit velocity has been 92.7 mph, much higher than the 89.1 mph when he was in DC. The hard hit rate has been 4% higher and most of the batted ball data has been similar, sans the infield fly ball and home run-to-fly ball rates.
The plate discipline numbers show the biggest divergences. Thomas is swinging at fewer pitches in the strike zone while the chase rate has gone from 19.6% to 28%. The contact rates have all decreased substantially while the swinging strike rate has gone from 7.4% to 12.2%.
The numbers don’t scream that he’s a different player. More like, the timing is off and he just has to get comfortable in his new surroundings. Could the terrible play continue? Definitely.
But he’s still batting second or fifth in the lineup and that 94th percentile sprint speed hasn’t left him. The Guardians sit atop the AL Central and they are going to want to get Thomas comfortable for the playoffs, so I don’t see the risk of him getting moved down in the order.
