It’s good to be back in the Analytics Anonymous classroom talking fantasy baseball after a short time away. Like many of you, summer is the time for family vacations and if we’re lucky, time away from the phone and Google machine. That’s what it was like for me recently and alas, will be again the next couple weeks.
Yes, The Lineup Builder will be “off the grid” for most of July so look for my next AA session in early August. No matter, stick with all my colleagues here at Razzball and you’ll be in good hands. Most importantly for me though, I just finished interviews to hire a temporary manager for all my fantasy teams so those will be in good hands as well. One item on my “to-do” list checked off. The next…evaluate mid-season SP value.
You may recall my March 2 article where I look at pre-season SP value. If that is foggy now that we’re in July, don’t fret. You can go back and see it HERE. Go ahead, I’ll wait…
Welcome back. Interesting projections, weren’t they? Let’s see if reality agrees.
As you just read, the whole concept of SP value is based on the premise, “The top fantasy pitchers almost always have top 10 finishes in innings pitched (IP), K-BB% and SIERA rates.” So, to determine value, we look at how SPs cumulatively rank in these three categories and compare to their ADP. The result looks something like this:
The SPs above the line represent negative value (according to their ADP) and the SPs below represent positive value. In this analysis from March, I took it a step further and took a closer look at a few players who were showing as value picks (those 4 circles in colors). Remember who those SPs were? Well, you can go back to the March article and read more. Perhaps one or more of them will show up in today’s analysis.
Fast forward to July, and specifically July 4. Yes, it’s Independence Day. It’s also the day I’m doing the analysis (as I await the afternoon BBQ and evening fireworks). So, all SP data is current as of July 3 and if you’re a pitcher with a 1 or more in the GS column, you’re part of this analysis. You might think that’s a big number then. Well, it is. In fact, 275 pitchers qualify under that criterion. This should be fun then. LET’S GO!
IP Data
Here are your IP leaders (top 15):
How many of you had Seth Lugo with 116.0 IP in early July. If you did, I bow to your fantasy baseball acumen.
Now, let’s move on to SIERA.
SIERA
Like the FIP (Field Independent Pitching) and xFIP, SIERA is an advanced analytic that strives to determine the underlying skill level of the pitcher. Unlike the FIP though, SIERA attempts to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. As FanGraphs puts it, “SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.” Here’s how pitchers are generally rated in this category:
So, who are our SIERA leaders at the mid-point?
Do you see it? Yea, I do too. The top two ranked in SIERA have a combined 3 GS. For now, I’ll keep the qualifying thresholds in place. The beauty of cumulative ranks, anomalies like this tend to sort themselves out in the end. However, I reserve the right to come back to this one if necessary.
K-BB%
Lastly, here are the top 15 in K-BB%:
Before I move on, I just need to say…can you imagine where the Cleveland Guardians would be with this Shane Bieber toeing the rubber every 5 days? His was a tough injury to swallow at the time. Looking back now…tragic!
Now, let’s put it all together. Remember, the lowest cumulative score wins!
IP – SIERA – K-BB%
Here is a summary table that illustrates the “top fantasy pitchers” as outlined above:
AND THE WINNER IS…Garrett Crochet! Who had his name on their bingo card? Crochet has been essentially the lone bright spot on an otherwise dismal season for the South-Siders. He’s also an odds-on favorite to finish the season in another uniform.
Most of these names really shouldn’t be a surprise for those of us paying attention. Chris Sale and Jack Flaherty, for example, have really fallen off the fantasy radar over the past couple years but are having a very good bounce-back seasons for the Braves and Tigers, respectively.
This analysis also confirms the solid performances of SPs like Tanner Houck and Cole Ragans as well. So, maybe there really is something to this hypothesis of, “The top fantasy pitchers almost always have top 10 finishes in innings pitched (IP), K-BB% and SIERA rates.”
SP Value
There’s one last thing I want to do before putting a bow on this. For Garrett Crochet and co., here is the value-rating at the time of the pre-season analysis I did in March. NOTE: the previous analysis only rated 155 pitchers – and all but one were on the list. Ironically that was Crochet. I think it’s safe to say he was POSITIVE value. Now, the rest:
That’s a wrap. I hope you enjoyed the analysis and look back to the pre-season.
Now to pay the bills…
When you come to the Razzball site (https://razzball.com), you can find me on both on the baseball and football sides. Just look for “The Lineup Builder” and you’ve found me! I’m doing QB rankings all offseason along with some pre-season podcasts, in addition to hosting these baseball sessions.
Also, don’t forget…there won’t be another Analytics Anonymous article in July. Look for me again right here in early August. Have a safe and enjoyable July.
If you don’t yet (and why not?), be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret. I’m now on BlueSky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.
