Welcome back stolen base aficionados. The calendar is about to turn to June, and the fantasy teams are shaking out into the contenders and the teams prepping for Fantasy football season. Today we are going to discuss the classic 2002 Tom Hanks and Leonardo Dicaprio film Catch Me If You Can. The Steven Spielberg biographical crime dramedy also features a star studded supporting cast with Amy Adams, Christopher Walken, Martin Sheen, Nathalie Baye, and James Brolin.
Well, if you have made it this far I highly suggest checking out the flick, but in reality we are going to take a deep dive into what makes a good catcher when it comes to limiting base runners, and which catchers we should target to pick up stolen bases against when making our Speed Dials.
So what makes a good catcher when it comes to throwing out base runners? First off a pitcher that limits traffic, but that’s a conversation for a different article. Another factor is again on the pitcher and that’s the runner’s average distance from second base when the catcher receives the ball. The bigger the jump the harder a runner is to throw out.
The two main components the catcher can control are arm strength and exchange time. These stats are rolled up into one seemless number called Pop Time. So what is the exact definition of Pop Time? The time elapsed from the moment the pitch hits the catcher’s mitt to the moment the intended fielder is projected to receive his throw at the center of the base.
Historically an average Pop Time is 2.00 seconds. As catchers have been working on this over time they have gotten quicker, however. Of the 67 qualified catchers since the start of 2023 only 12 of them have a Pop Time above 2.00 seconds. On the flip side, only 6 catchers have an average pop time of under 1.90 seconds. There’s a big difference however in those tenth of a second differences in Pop Time. For instance, a runner who is 56 feet from second facing a catcher with a Pop Time of 1.90 seconds gets thrown out on average 38% of the time. That same runner facing a catcher with a Pop Time of 1.98 seconds only gets thrown out 25% of the time.
Baseball Savant has rolled all this information together and showcases a final ranking of Catcher’s CS Above Average on their Catcher Throwing Leaderboard
So who are the best and worst at throwing guys out? Let’s take a look at the rankings.
Above is your Top 10 list. Something quickly to note is that everyone in this group has a low Pop Time. The worst overall caught stealing rate is at 24%. Gabriel Moreno is wiping out runners at an amazing 46% clip. The numbers also show something similar to xFIP for pitchers. Moreno’s estimated CS rate is at 20% so it is possible he is due for some regression.
Here’s the group to stream baserunners against. Keibert Ruiz is the ultimate in Green Lights for opposing managers. Teams have run against him 113 times since the start of 2023 which is the most in baseball. He has only thrown out 8% of those runners. Luis Campusano has yet to throw out a single runner of the 33 who have tried.
The moral of the story is there are lots of things that go into finding an ideal SB target. Picking a poor defensive catcher is but one of the aspects you can look at. That being said I wanna play my speed picks against Keibert Ruiz every chance I get.
Here’s the Stolen Base Leader Board through Monday 5/27.
The Speed Dials
We went 0 of 4 last week. Remember these are exact dates to pickup and stream steals guys in daily leagues. That means we are now 7 for 32 on the season. Reminder these stats and analysis includes 2023 and 2024 data.
Reds Vs Cardinals – Wednesday May 29th
Will Benson – I get that Benson is only hitting .194, but he’s also got 7 HRs and 8 SBs, and somehow is only on 2.1% of rosters at ESPN. Sprint speed check in at 28.4 Ft/Sec, and we know the Reds like to run. He’ll face Andre Pallente who allows a robust .192 SB/IP and battery mate Ivan Herrera who is just 1 for 17 in cutting down runners.
Mariners vs Astros – Thursday May 30th
Dylan Moore – Here’s another guy who should be rostered more checking in at 17.4%. He’s got 6 HRs to go along with 8 SBs. Moore has slightly above league average sprint speed at 27.8 Ft/Sec and is running much Moore often this season. He will face Spencer Arrighetti and the Astros. Spencer (I’m not typing that last name again) allows .133 SB/IP and Yainier Diaz behind the plate is just below league average at 19% for this throw out rate. It is also possible we see Victor Caratini behind the dish who is much better at 33%.
Guardians vs Nationals – Friday May 31st
Tyler Freeman – Freeman has 7 steals so far on the season and is currently rostered in 11.7% of leagues. Sprint speed is above average at 28.1 Ft/Sec and he is at 80% success rate stealing bases. Patrick Corbin will oppose. He allows a lot of traffic and although he’s a lefty he doesn’t keep runners terribly tight. Corbin has allowed 39 SBs over the last two seasons good for .162 SB/IP and an 84.8% success rate against. It doesn’t help that his usual battery mate is the worst throwing catcher in MLB as showcased above in Keibert Ruiz.
Nationals vs Guardians – Saturday June 1st
Jacob Young – We’ll flip teams for Saturday’s selection and go with Jacob Young who is up to 16 steals on the season. He is tied for 16th in MLB sprint speed at 29.4 Ft/Sec and is converting at a 93.5% rate in his time in the majors. Ben Lively will oppose him. Lively allows only .082 SB/IP, but a 91.7% success rate against so that number should go up with more traffic on the bases which he is due for. Both Austin Hedges and Bo Naylor are above average at cutting down runners, but they will struggle with Lively holding guys on.
As always, if you’re looking for anything further out for next week where we don’t have exact pitching match-ups hit me up here or on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche
