There is an art to the stolen base. Getting a read off the pitcher and learning when to go and when to get back takes patience and practice. It also takes a natural set of instincts that certain players just don’t have. That being said that art is meaningless without the natural God-given talent of speed. The next two weeks we are going to take a quick look at players with the Top 30 sprint speeds in MLB and focus in on those players with lower levels of ownership to see if they are worth taking a roster flyer on for stolen bases.
Here is the Statcast Sprint Speed leaderboard. The column listed as Bolts describes the amount of competitive runs where the player has topped 30Ft/second.
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Lots of folks you’d expect to see at the top of this list like Elly DLC, Witt Jr., and Dairon Blanco, but there’s some other folks on here you may not be aware of who could still be sitting on waivers for you to snag for the second half.
Pete Crow-Armstong, Chicago Cubs: OF – Now in his second stint in the majors this year he is making an impact, and may be here to stay. If you blinked you may have missed it, but PCA stole five bases last week getting to 12 on the season. The major concern with Pete is his contact rates, but he has been a bit unlucky with a .269 BABIP. If he can get that closer to league average his defense and speed should keep him in the lineup more often than not and 30 total stolen bases isn’t out of the question.
Jorge Mateo, Baltimore Giants: IF – Until Jackson Holliday is healthy and can show he’s fully ready, Jorge Mateo will continue to get ABs in Baltimore. He is playing every day against lefties and will be the first runner off the bench in any stolen base situation in Baltimore. The hit tool isn’t great and his numbers are right in line with his career norms. Look for him to swipe another 15+ bases this season.
Jake McCarthy, Arizona Diamondbacks: OF – My favorite target of the three players today. McCarthy was high on everyone’s list to have a big stolen base total this season. He started off slow however ending May with only five stolen bases. His hit tool has gotten better as the K-rate has fallen and the BB% is up. The batting average is right in line with where everyone expected also. So why is he on the waiver wire? Just that slow start on the basepaths which appears to be getting rectified as he has stolen five bases in June already. He has also been hitting fifth or sixth in the lineup consistently for a month now. Grab him now as there are certainly 20 more stolen bases on the horizon.
Here’s the Stolen Base Leader Board through Sunday 6/16
The Speed Dials:
We couldn’t get the hit last week as injuries and Jo Adell going 0 for 4 with 4 Ks shot down our chances. However, our article lead David Hamilton stole 4 bases on Sunday, so hopefully, some of you picked him up if he was still available out there.
Overall, that means we are now 9 for 44 on the season. Remember these are exact dates to pickup and stream steals guys in daily leagues. Reminder these stats and analysis includes 2023 and 2024 data.
Tigers vs Braves – Wednesday June 19th
Zach McKinstry – Zach will face Reynaldo Lopez and the Braves on Wednesday. He has only swiped four bases this season but has yet to be caught. His sprint speed still checks in at above average at 28.1 Ft/Second. Lopez allows 85.9% of runners to succeed and is due for some regression when it comes to traffic on the bases this season. There’s a big difference in catcher for the Braves as Sean Murphy is a solid option checking in at 11th on the throwing leaderboard. Travis d’Arnaud however is at 52nd.
Diamondbacks vs Nationals – Thursday June 20th
Jake McCarthy – Well here’s our friend Jake. Still out there and available. He’ll face Mackenzie Gore and the Nationals Thursday. Gore has allowed 22 stolen bases since the start of 2023 with a 91.7% success rate against and a .104 SB/IP. A lot of that has to do with Keibert Ruiz being the absolute worst catcher at throwing out baserunners in MLB with a -16 Catcher Caught Stealing vs Average rating.
Blue Jays vs Guardians – Friday June 21st
Daulton Varsho – Last week he was hitting grand slams against the Guardians, this week it’ll be swiping bags. Varsho has solid speed coming in at 28.4 Ft/Sec and is seven out of eight on the basepaths this year. He’ll get Carlos Carrasco who allows 94.4% of base stealers to be successful and has a .114 SB/IP. Bo Naylor is near the bottom of the catcher throwing ratings and only throws out 14% of would-be base stealers.
Braves vs Yankees – Saturday June 22nd
Jarred Kelenic – That guy is still around? Yeah, and he’s been leading off a bunch recently for the Braves. His sprint speed is above average at 27.9 Ft/Sec, but he has only stolen two bases in 2024. As the Braves have struggled offensively they haven’t yet adapted to running more, but I think that will change. He’ll face Marcus Stroman Saturday who has allowed 29 stolen bases the last two seasons with a 93.5% success rate. That’s good for .131 SB/IP. Both Austin Wells and Jose Trevino are in the bottom half of the throwing rankings.
As always, if you’re looking for anything further out for next week where we don’t have exact pitching match-ups hit me up here or on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche
