Here we are. Back with SAGNOF stories once again as we approach Memorial Day. Had to skip last week’s article as real life sometimes gets in the way of Fantasy life, and between the full time job and travel and the kid’s sports seasons just couldn’t find the time any evenings last week to whip up your favorite steals article.
This week I wanted to take a quick deep dive into Brice Turang. Mr. Turang would be leading the MLB in steals if not for that guy named Elly. He stole 26 bases last season in 137 games and is up to 18 already this year. So what’s driving the increase? Well first off his ability to get on base seems to have increased in his second full season in the bigs. His plate discipline and contact increases are drastically improved over 2023. Is it a small sample size? Kind of, but we’re past the 1/4 pole in the year and he’s got 170 plate appearances so it isn’t just a blip on the radar.
The batting average is almost 100 points higher than last season’s .218 effort. A couple contributing factors here. First, the BABIP is sitting at .359. This level is likely not sustainable, but it was at .342 for a full season in AAA. The increase is primarily driven by a big decrease in his soft contact rate which dropped from 18.7% last year to 8.4% this season. Secondly his K-Rate has fallen from 21% to 14.2% driven by his O-swing level falling from 30.3% to 26.6% and his swinging strike rate falling from 8.3% to 5.0%. Again I expect some of this to level off, but I believe with his speed the dropoff won’t be significant. He very easily could end up hitting .300 and if that happens with a walk rate of 8-10% the steals are going to continue.
Brice is somehow still available in 28% of leagues at ESPN, so if you need some steals it is at least worth a peak to see if somehow he is still on waivers.
Here’s the current Stolen Base Leader Board through Sunday, May 19th.
Not sure why Acuna decided to stop swiping bases again or hitting home runs for that matter. Brice Turang is 45th on the Razzball player rater currently. Acuna at 74th.
The Speed Dials
We went 1 of 4 last week. Remember these are exact dates to pickup and stream steals guys in daily leagues. That means we are now 7 for 28 on the season. Reminder these stats and analysis includes 2023 and 2024 data.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers – Wednesday May 22nd
Jake McCarthy – He’s got to get turned loose at some point. He’s getting on base, just not going as he’s only attempted 4 stolen bases this year. He’s tied for 25th in MLB in sprint speed so I just don’t get it. Maybe the Snakes forgot he’s fast? He’ll face Tyler Glasnow who can be run on if you get on base. He’s allowed 28 stolen bases the last two seasons and .154 SB/IP with a 90.3% success rate against him. If Will Smith is behind the plate it does make it a little tougher. He’s #1 in 2024 on the catcher throwing leaderboard and has cut down 20% of runners since the start of 2023.
Reds vs Padres – Thursday May 23rd
Will Benson – The Reds like to run. They’ve got the speed and love putting the pressure on opposing pitchers. Benson checks in at 28.4 Ft/Second in sprint speed, but that’s not his issue. Getting on base is as he is currently is striking out 39% of his at-bats. Hopefully, he can avoid that against Matt Waldron and the Padres. Waldron has allowed a perfect 11 for 11 in steals the last two seasons and .127 SB/IP. His likely battery mate Luis Campusano is 61st of 67th for qualified catchers cutting down base runners and has allowed all 32 base runners to reach second base successfully against him since the start of 2023.
Twins vs Rangers- Friday May 24th
Willi Castro – Willi’s success rate is only 6 for 10 in 2024, and his sprint speed is down to 27.8 Ft/second this year. I guess the legs fall about at 27 years of age in Minneapolis right Mr. Buxton? Still, he was 33 for 38 last year and is getting on base at a decent clip so I expect improvement. Jon Gray is the pitcher we are targeting to run on Friday. He actually does a really good job getting to home plate and stealers are only successful 68% of the time against him, but there’s a lot of traffic out there. Jonah Heim can be run on with 21 bases stolen against this year and only 4 caught stealing.
Padres vs Yankees – Saturday May 25th
Jackson Merrill – He’s not lightning fast at 28.0 Ft/Second in sprint speed, but he’s 22 for 28 across three levels the last two seasons in steals. Currently getting on base at a .338 clip and going up against Marcus Stroman Saturday. Stroman allows .113 SB/IP and hasn’t had a runner caught stealing the last two seasons. Austin Wells and Jose Trevino don’t help much behind the plate both ranking in the bottom third of the throwing metrics for qualified catchers.
Next week we will look at some Catcher throwing metrics and who the best to stream against are, and as always, if you’re looking for anything further out for next week where we don’t have exact pitching match-ups hit me up here or on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche
