It’s all-star week! That’s a good time to sit down, stare at your team’s record, cry, calculate how much you spent in buy-ins, cry some more, and then take a deep breath and figure out how you’re going to dig yourself out of 8th place. Remember — and I know this as a Twins fan — all you gotta do is make the playoffs. Once you’re in the playoffs, any kind of luck or dumb chance or Shohei Ohtani hot streak can save you. You don’t have to finish first in your league — just get into the playoffs and see if you can muster an attack strong enough to be considered the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks. Hopefully one of the players below will help your suffering team get to the next level:
That’s What I Like:
Rece Hinds (CIN, SS, 0% Rostered): Something tells me that by Tuesday night, Hinds will be rostered in every league, including fantasy football leagues. Speaking of which, it’s apparently RazzBowl time! Ah, fond memories of me being the 8th most prolific writer in Razzball Football history, along with an industry competition win and a FSWA finalist nomination. You’d imagine football mavens would want to include me in their leagues, but I didn’t even make it into Scott Fish Bowl this year, and they accept like 1400 people. Right now you’re probably like, “what does fantasy football have to do with Rece Hinds and where is my Corona and why won’t my grill light and why am I firing up the grill for hot dogs when the objectively best way to cook a hot dog is to air fry it.” Well my confused friend, it’s because Rece Hinds is probably gonna last on your fantasy baseball team about as long as this paragraph. He’s absolutely smoking the ball right now, as if it were a pork shoulder and this was a Labor Day weekend BBQ. Do we have any evidence Hinds will sustain his pace — which is to hit 60 home runs in the second half of the year? He has a second round pedigree and some success in the minors, but he’s also got a worrying K rate. In Triple-A this year, his wRC+ was a meager 76, driven by his nearly 40% strikeout rate. Sure, 13 dingers and 12 swipes to go along with that, but a .216 average even with his .323 BABIP means that his actual expected average was something like .190. But every once in a while, there’s an underdog that gets a shot at the big time and get on a torrid pace. Like, at the time of writing, Hinds’ ISO is .909 and his wRC+ is 418. That’s better than Barry Bonds’ 73 homer year. Hinds has some really interesting fantasy upside — offense sucks this year, and Hinds has a history of power and speed. If you’ve got enough surplus average on your team and somebody like Oneil Cruz (wRC+=101) making your infield stagnant, Hinds will undoubtedly add some spice. But there’s a stupid-high (that’s a scientific term developed by Tommy Chong) chance that Hinds finishes the year 15/10 with a .230 average and 35% K rate, which would make him negative value in points leagues and tough to stomach in head-to-head. Don’t break the bank, but give Hinds a shot and see if that beginner’s luck sticks.
Luke Weaver (NYY, P, 0% Rostered): Sure, half the fantasy world plays in your typical 5×5 league and they still don’t know what a “hold” is. Your average fantasy baseballer also doesn’t know the difference between Taco Bell and Taco John’s. Tater tots…on a burrito? What has the world come to? ENYWHEY. Weaver’s a freebie holds maven for all those “deep league” SVHD teams. For clarity, SVHD means “Stardew Valley High Definition,” which is the next big thing in pixel gaming. In July, Weaver’s racked up 3 holds in 8 IP while maintaining a glistening 1.13 ERA. Extending back into June, Weaver’s also flashing a 10+ K/9, which helps every kind of team. That said, Weaver hasn’t been in a place to get a lot of Wins — it’s been a month since he notched his last dubya, and the majority of his W come from a hot streak to start the season. That said, the Yankees are a good team in a playoff race and Wins are tough to predict — we’ve seen plenty of Roleless Robs top the W charts with worse performances, and another hot streak could help out teams in any format. Weaver’s obviously an add for those SVHD or straight hold leagues, but he’s also worth a look in head-to-head leagues where you need K/9 help or ERA help — he’s free in all formats, and pairing Weaver with a starter like Dylan Cease or Joe Ryan can elevate a team that needs ERA help.
Max Schuemann (OAK, SS, 2% Rostered): It’s come to this: you’re rostering the #9 hitter for the Oakland Athletics in an attempt to save your team’s season. It could be worse — you could still be starting Nolan Jones, right? A lot of teams will miss out on the Hinds lottery this week, and Shuemann might be the consolation prize if you’re needy at SS. Through July, Shuemann’s batting .333/.450/.515 with a 183 wRC+, which even non-SABR heads can agree is “pretty rockin’,” to use the parlance of my grandfather. He’s also swiped 4 bags in that same period, so he’s a conceptual 5-tool threat, but he comes with plenty of concern, like all players in this column. Schuemann’s never hit for power in the minors, topping out around 10 homers per year and looking more like a prototypical leadoff hitter with high OBP potential. Yet, Oakland has him batting ninth? Hanging out at the bottom of the order really destroys upside potential, especially for a guy who’s hitting a pretty good clip. Maybe they’re showcasing him for a trade or protecting his playing time or some other business move that doesn’t make sense to anybody but a guy in an office with an Excel spreadsheet of finances. If you need cheap speed and average, Schuemann’s an option for deeper leagues. If he happens to keep hitting for power, that’s just icing on the cake.
I’m The Problem – It’s Me
Dustin May (LAD, P, 0% Rostered): May will miss the rest of the 2024 season after a [checks notes] torn esophagus? Did I spell that right? I don’t think I’ve ever written “esophagus” in this column. Apparently, it was a dinner-caused injury and not related to his Tommy John rehab. That said, a fair amount of fantasy teams were salivating at May’s second-half return this year. The year I finished 6th overall in RazzSlam, I learned the importance of not relying on Tommy John returnees. I had invested in Chris Sale and Luis Severino because they were each due back in July. Severino took a funny step off the mound during rehab and was set back in his recovery; he ended up pitching 6 total innings that year. Sale’s return got delayed until August, at which point he was mostly given an inning cap and only broke the 6IP barrier once as the year finished out. The Dustin May story is, of course, tragic. But it’s a stand-in for fantasy baseball players thinking about Tommy John returnees like Robbie Ray or Jeffrey Springs as ballast for a sinking team, or potentially Jacob deGrom or Shane McClanahan appearing in relief roles during the fantasy playoffs. Tommy John recoveries can be weird. Shohei Ohtani clearly took that predator blood and crushed even Bryce Harper’s timeline for return to batting (and Harper still took another couple months to really get back to form). But for every Ohtani, there three or more players who stumble in their recovery for whatever reason. For May, it looks like he’ll be out until 2025, which puts a bigger damper on his dynasty value.
