Happy Monday, Razzball faithful!
Well, it looks like I got ahead of the newest rush of Skibidi Skenes madness last week as our lede from 7 days ago threw an absolute gem on Friday night. 6 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 11 K, and 100 pitches thrown? Oh yes. Do we polish up the Cy Young award for this kid already? Uh…not yet. But more on that later.
I’m far from the first person to RSVP to the Skenes breakout party, but I did add him on April 27th in the Razzball ‘Perts league just to make sure I had at least one share this year.
It’s tough to announce that the window of floating out a decent trade offer for him in your dynasty league was officially slammed shut after this week’s performance. I can understand if you’re sad and filled with waves of FOMO.
Unless…you heeded your roto-Dad’s advice last week and managed to secure him before he delivered this beauty?
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) May 17, 2024
At risk of making today all about this week’s best SP performance, I wondered if there was an older arm that we could focus on for the lede (that I’ve effectively buried once again).
Is there an anti-Skenes story that we could look at this week?
Do we have a left-handed starting pitcher who is at the other end of the age and experience scale that we can peek in on? Is there a player who had a similar amount of hype as a young prospect who launched himself into the stratosphere with a hot debut, and rode that to continued success?
I bet you’re thinking I’m headed for a Strasburg comparison. Or, maybe you read the title and realize that it’s time to re-visit the Tale of Chris Sale.
I kind of joked about Sale finding the deLorean time machine from Back to the Future over the last couple of weeks, but it wasn’t until I really sat down to look at the numbers that I realized how much he’s bounced back to that legitimate ace level pitcher he was nearly a decade ago.
I could throw a blanket of words at you about how much Sale has bounced back. But I think this graphic speaks volumes.
Oh boy. This thing is redder than the necks of the Braves fans in the bleachers. (For the record, I mean the literal sunburn and not any other kind of euphemism. Don’t come looking for me, Atlantonians).
After 8 starts, Sale’s posted a 6-1 record with some pretty impressive statistics. The 11.10 K/9 is his highest since his heyday with the Red Sox. The 1.45 BB/9? That’s just the lowest walk rate of his entire CAREER! The other numbers are in line with his annual bests or are coming in under those stats.
At the very least, Chris Sale is showing the world that a 35-year-old pitcher with a history of arm issues can go through a renaissance of sorts and return to the top-level pitcher he once was.
I openly questioned how a guy with this kind of injury record and a body type that makes uncooked spaghetti look thick could bounce back and be productive and reliable throughout his “senior years” as an MLB starter.
As a quick aside, when I sorted the SPs for the last 30 days guess which one came up with the highest roto-value at $44.9? If you guessed Ranger Suarez or Shota Imanaga, you hit the second and tenth names. Chris Sale sits alone atop that metric mountain.
Chris Sale, Vicious 78mph Slider. ? pic.twitter.com/QByGdmosGy
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 14, 2024
When the slider still looks like this…and gets a very good hitter to do this…they say that’s a good thing.
Does Chris Sale win the NL Cy Young award this year? Maybe not. Especially with guys like Shota Imanaga and Ranger Suarez continuing to keep up the pace in that race. But, at the very least, Chris Sale’s Cy situation is certainly not silly anymore. Not to mention that he is most definitely deserving a slot in the Top 20 of our Top 100 Starting Pitchers list.
But before we get to the list, I need to plug a couple of things for y’all first. If you want to check the spot I usually have open when flipping through my information on Sunday afternoons, you’re looking for that Player Rater leaderboard. This is always a great resource to use if you’re doing research. A bit of this, and a splash of that goes into the prep-work for our weekly Top 100 Starting Pitchers list.
Of course, if you’re one of those doubting-your-own-gut-instinct kind of fantasy managers, or just want to use a great resource that will point you in the right direction every week, The Streamonator is here to help you answer those burning questions that we might not be readily available to help you with 24/7.
If you haven’t signed up for it yet, this should be your go-to reference for the entire season. It’s going to save you a lot of time researching and often includes those “Oh, I never thought about that” solutions into the equation for you. Check the link, yo.
| RANK
(LAST WEEK) |
Name | TEAM | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corbin Burnes | Orioles | Was mowing down Mariners yesterday when I wrote this. |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | Phillies | Still Top 10 on Player Rater. |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | Dodgers | The strikeouts make him elite. |
| 4 | Tarik Skubal | Tigers | Showing that the jump last week was warranted. 6-0 and the lede could have been Skibidi Skubal this week. |
| 5 | Pablo Lopez | Twins | Remember when the Marlins wanted a solid bat in return for their ace? And now…Woo Suk-Go. Ouch. |
| 6 | Luis Castillo | Mariners | 4 wins and 5 losses does not look like the record of an ace, but the supporting statistics show his wins should be much higher. |
| 7 (9) | Shoto Imanaga | Cubs | Oh Em Gee. Bouncing above Freddy KBB is a big deal in my brain. |
| 8 (7) | Freddy Peralta | Brewers | See Castillo above, but with a nastier ERA. |
| 9 (11) | Ranger Suarez | Phillies | Top 10! Just like we expected in February! (said no one). |
| 10 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Dodgers | Tough start last time but still elite. |
| 11 (16) | Chris Sale | Braves | Movin’ on up. |
| 12 (25) | Grayson Rodriguez | Orioles | Aggressive move, but didn’t look like he missed a beat in Saturday’s return. |
| 13 (14) | Dylan Cease | Padres | Strikeouts! |
| 14 (13) | Logan Gilbert | Mariners | Looked mortal again in his last start, but still great. |
| 15 (18) | Jared Jones | Pirates | Grey’s quote that I caught here was “Even the iffy starts are good”. More below. |
| 16 (8) | Kevin Gausman | Blue Jays | It’s not looking great. Probably too much of a drop, but that’s my anti-bias at work here. More below. |
| 17 (12) | George Kirby | Mariners | Too low, but I watched Burnes vs Kirby while I wrote this yesterday and the 2 homers allowed helped to balloon his ERA over 4.00 |
| 18 (17) | Logan Webb | Giants | Shutout innings last start but still lacking those Ks. |
| 19 | Cole Ragans | Royals | Solid bounce back last week vs the A’ss. |
| 20 (22) | Tanner Houck | Red Sox | 13th on the Player Rater. |
| 21 | Zac Gallen | Diamondbacks | Still Top 20. Kind of. |
| 22 (15) | Max Fried | Braves | Underwhelming start against the Padres. |
| 23 (29) | Seth Lugo | Royals | Just above Imanaga on the Player Rater…wait, WHAT!? |
| 24 | Jose Berrios | Blue Jays | 8 ER at Philly then just 2 ER at Baltimore. Can’t even say the matchups provide much guidance here. Shrug emoji. |
| 25 (32) | Aaron Nola | Phillies | CG SO 0 BB 8 K? And that’s how you climb the Top 100 ladder. |
| 26 | Justin Verlander | Astros | Looks less godly than he used to look, but not moving much from this area until he shows signs of finally rusting. |
| 27 (23) | Joe Ryan | Twins | Followed up a great start on May 10th with a meh one on May 16th. |
| 28 (36) | Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 6 innings of shutout ball with 7 Ks. So far so good. |
| 29 (21) | Bryce Miller | Mariners | A shaky few in a row. |
| 30 (27) | Zach Eflin | Rays | Just 4 walks in 59 IP…but the rest of the numbers are “eff-lin bad”. |
| 31 (39) | Paul Skenes | Pirates | Skibidi Skenes had a no-hitter with 11 Ks through 6 innings before he was pulled. More below. |
| 32 (28) | Bailey Ober | Twins | Knocked around again last week. |
| 33 (41) | Garrett Crochet | White Sox | Two straight 0 ER starts and the Ks are still there. That justifies my bias for now. |
| 34 | Bobby Miller | Dodgers | Will need ‘multiple rehab starts’ to rebuild arm strength. |
| 35 | Framber Valdez | Astros | 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K. There’s the ace of my Razzslam team! (Ugh). |
| 36 (NR) | Clarke Schmidt | Yankees | Ya know what?! It’s time to slide in a new arm here. More below. |
| 37 (33) | Kutter Crawford | Red Sox | I jinxed him last week when I said he was steadily moving up. |
| 38 (36) | Yusei Kikuchi | Blue Jays | Just keeps throwing innings. Effective and nothing flashy. |
| 39 (42) | Javier Assad | Cubs | Player Rater wonders aloud why you can’t Javier Assad and eat…wait. Nevermind. He’s Top 10 in the PR rankings. |
| 40 (44) | Jesus Luzardo | Marlins | 6 IP 5 H 0 ER 7 K. A good first step (and it wasn’t even on water). |
| 41 (43) | Mitch Keller | Pirates | Followed up his complete game with 6 shutout innings at MLW. Mitch better have my money! |
| 42 (31) | Brady Singer | Royals | Last week 30s, the week before 50s. This feels closer to the mark. |
| 43 (56) | Yu Darvish | Padres | Should’ve moved him higher last week. 3 straight shutout outings. |
| 44 (51) | Hunter Greene | Reds | Another one bouncing back and forth. No walks and 5 Ks helps. |
| 45 (30) | Ronel Blanco | Astros | Maybe this far of a drop is a bit harsh, but the sticky stuff suspension for 10 games is enough to hammer him for now. |
| 46 (37) | Sonny Gray | Cardinals | Back-to-back ouchies after I pointed out he was producing like an ace. Oof. |
| 47 | Kyle Bradish | Orioles | Has to show stamina before jumping up any higher. |
| 48 (52) | Blake Snell | Giants | Struck out 10 in 5 IP in rehab start. Should be up for Wednesday at Pittsburgh. |
| 49 | Reynaldo Lopez | Braves | Grey mentioned it on Monday. The regression fairies feel like they’re stalking this guy too. |
| 50 (45) | Nick Lodolo | Reds | The groin injury sends him to the IL, but he ‘hopes’ to start May 27th. |
| 51 (40) | Justin Steele | Cubs | Arr ya sure the Pirates are this good? Or arr ya not as good as we thought? Two straight stinkers vs the Buccos. |
| 52 (48) | Brayan Bello | Red Sox | I wanted to move him up, but 3 HR at St. Louis curbed that idea pretty quickly. |
| 53 | Joe Musgrove | Padres | Supposed to be back this week. |
| 54 | Michael King | Padres | King looked like a pauper this week. 6 ER in 5.1 IP. |
| 55 | Carlos Rodon | Yankees | Floating around the middle of the pack. |
| 56 (65) | Nick Pivetta | Red Sox | A much more encouraging start on May 14th, and so far so good through 2 innings yesterday (when I was writing this). |
| 57 | Ryan Pepiot | Rays | Could be back early this week. |
| 58 (46) | Jordan Montgomery | Diamondbacks | The meh is real. |
| 59 | Nestor Cortes | Yankees | Meh. The sequel. |
| 60 | Tanner Bibee | Guardians | His last one was better than the previous two starts. He was throwing well at the time of writing yesterday. |
| 61 | Jon Gray | Rangers | Four straight QS. The ratios are looking good. |
| 62 (72) | Luis Gil | Yankees | 14 Ks on Saturday boosts him. TBH, I should probably flip him with Justin Steele, if not someone even higher. |
| 63 | Bryan Woo | Mariners | Another good start, but pitches at NYY this week. Still unsure about his arm holding up…for now. |
| 64 | MacKenzie Gore | Nationals | Stubbornly staying at 64 this week. |
| 65 (50) | Chris Bassitt | Blue Jays | Not despicable by any means, but something does not look right. Headed in the wrong direction. |
| 66 (NR) | Alec Marsh | Royals | I had Hunter Brown here and asked myself, “Would I rather have Marsh or Brown ROS?”. This should answer the question. |
| 67 (62) | Christopher Sanchez | Phillies | Still feels too high here. A good streamer depending on the OPP offense. |
| 68 | Cristian Javier | Astros | Do you feel lucky? Like most of us predicted, the start against the A’ss wasn’t a disaster. Will he be able to survive the Jo Adell show at home this week? |
| 69 (67) | Charlie Morton | Braves | Should probably be higher. Another solid, boring start. |
| 70 (69) | Triston McKenzie | Guardians | Still hasn’t given up more than 2 ER since April 13th. |
| 71 (83) | Gerrit Cole | Yankees | Threw a two-inning sim this weekend. Mid-June at the earliest. |
| 72 (70) | Reid Detmers | Angels | Still more than a strikeout per inning, but that’s about it. |
| 73 | Jordan Hicks | Giants | Another Player Rater darling. (42nd). |
| 74 (81) | Jack Flaherty | Tigers | The CWS% is at a stupid 36.3%. The strikeouts are way up. |
| 75 | Taj Bradley | Rays | Another newbie to the list. Great first start followed up by a decent one. |
| 76 (97) | Reese Olson | Tigers | Lost a tough one vs Weathers. Winless on the year, but ERA at 2.09, WHIP is 0.993, and BAA is .192. |
| 77 (92) | Gavin Stone | Dodgers | New face last week. 4 straight starts with just one ER in each. |
| 78 (NR) | Robert Gasser | Brewers | Hot prospect called up to fill in for injured arms and producing. |
| 79 (58) | Nathan Eovaldi | Rangers | Eligible to return Saturday but still needs to face live hitters this week. |
| 80 (77) | Trevor Williams | Nationals | Player Rater darling. Good but not great. |
| 81 (74) | Garrett Whitlock | Red Sox | Right elbow soreness after his rehab start last Wednesday. |
| 82 (90) | John Means | Orioles | A decent start last week means he’s at least above Hunter Brown. |
| 83 (94) | Dean Kremer | Orioles | Should stick on the list for a bit. |
| 84 (66) | Hunter Brown | Astros | If it’s Brown, flush it down. |
| 85 | Kyle Harrison | Giants | 4-1. Nothing flashy but still effective. |
| 86 (100) | Brandon Pfaadt | Diamondbacks | Rewarded our patience with a beauty last week. |
| 87 | Marcus Stroman | Yankees | Solid start at Minnesota. |
| 88 (95) | Erick Fedde | White Sox | Another strong start. |
| 89 (79) | Aaron Civale | Rays | Last week I pointed out that he hasn’t gotten through the 5th inning in over a month. |
| 90 (80) | Spencer Turnbull | Phillies | Brought in to relieve Seranthony, who was brought in to relieve Nola yesterday. Not good news if you’re looking for an SP. |
| 91 (NR) | Ryan Weathers | Marlins | Could be off the list next week, but 8 IP 3 H, 0 ER at Detroit helps. If you predicted Weathers’ 1-0 victory over Reese Olson in a pitching duel, congrats…on being a witch. |
| 92 | Mitchell Parker | Nationals | Serviceable but leaves fantasy managers underwhelmed (if that’s a word). |
| 93 (86) | Zack Littell | Rays | Nothing fancy. Needs some good starts to move him up. |
| 94 (84) | Jameson Taillon | Cubs | Sorry, Player Rater. I’m leaving him back down here until he either does something productive or falls off the list. |
| 95 (NR) | Matt Manning | Tigers | Full disclosure I have Manning everywhere. Hopefully, he sticks when Maeda returns from illness. |
| 96 (94) | Christian Scott | Mets | No falling apart by any means, but also not running with the job. Needs to stand out to avoid being reassigned to AAA. He’s better than he’s looked. |
| 97 (96) | Ben Lively | Guardians | Steady as she goes. |
| 98 (89) | Luis Severino | Mets | Ugh. |
| 99 (NR) | Jose Soriano | Angels | Feels like a poor man’s Berrios. Pitching well, but if he can’t get through 6 innings the wins will not be there. |
| 100 (NR) | Alek Manoah | Blue Jays | Please. Please, just stop giggling. I’m begging you… |
BIGGEST DUMPERS : With apologies to Cal Raleigh, these are some of the biggest dumpers (in value, not pants size).
Kevin Gausman 16 (8) – This is one who I wrote up last week when he dipped from Top 3 to the 8th spot. I said he’s still a Top 10 arm, and that’s true, but things have not looked good for a couple weeks and the whispers about health are starting to get louder. Questions like “Jared Jones or Kevin Gausman ROS?” would have elicited guffaws in March. Now? Maybe some softly suppressed snickers, but not as much of a belly laugh as this would’ve gotten two months ago.
Brady Singer 42 (31) – I think I had him way too low when he was in the 50’s. Then I think I tried to correct too much by putting him at 31. The 42 slot? This porridge seems just right.
Ronel Blanco 45 (30) – Speaking of porridge, if you need to add some honey or any other substance with a similar consistency…Ronel knows a guy.
Sonny Gray 46 (36) – This is another pitcher I think I might have jinxed. Gray has managed to cough up 11 ER in 11 IP over his past two starts. Add 4 HR allowed since I said he was one of those aces that didn’t carry an ace price tag. Somehow he managed to get a win last week after giving up 5 earned runs. The strikeouts are still there, though.
Hunter Brown 84 (66) – As I said above, I remember seeing a sign above a pool house toilet when I was a kid…”If it’s yellow, leave it mellow…if it’s brown, flush it down…”. I think it’s past time to send this guy swirling out the sewer pipe. There’s nothing mellow about this situation.
Aaron Civale 89 (79) – When Daniel Vogelbach turns you into his daddy and needs only a triple to complete the cycle (yesterday)…well, let’s just say that things are going about the same as they are with Hunter Brown.
BIGGEST JUMPERS : Who’s got hops? These are some of the biggest jumpers in value this week.
Ranger Suarez 9 (11) – This was last week’s blurb: “Holy smokes. I don’t know how he’s doing it, but at 7-0 with some pretty pristine ratios, I don’t think his fantasy owners care how he’s doing it either.” Well, it’s 8-0 now and the only criticism is that he only had 3 Ks in 5 innings last week.
Chris Sale 11 (16) – This is what I wrote last week… “42.2 IP, 34 H, 14 ER, 8 BB, 52 K, 2.95 ERA, 0.984 WHIP. Somebody call Doc Brown because Sale found the DeLorean.” But, seriously, look at the 2017 season when Sale somehow lost the Cy Young to Corey Kluber despite being the first starter to crack 300 Ks in a season since Pedro had done it in 1999. Then put it up against his current season so far.
I’ll admit that it’s a sloppy comparison to just multiply the 2024 numbers by 4 to match the 2017 final. (At least if we’re only looking at GS for the multiple). But things are looking pretty similar if you put those two seasons up for a quick analysis.
Grayson Rodriguez 12 (25) – The injury pushed him down a lot, but this is a guy that should be firmly entrenched in the Top 10 if he’s healthy. Just one hit over 6 innings with 7 Ks is a pretty good indication that his shoulder is feeling OK.
Jared Jones 15 (18) – Similar to Sale above, this isn’t one of the ‘biggest jumpers’, but more of an opportunity to write a bit up about a solid young arm. Similar to his rotation buddy Paul Skenes, the biggest question now is how many innings will this kid throw by the end of the year. I think that’s the only thing that makes this ranking look kind of silly. How high can Jones get? Well, his ceiling keeps on moving…which is often a good indicator that he’s pretty high.
Paul Skenes 31 (39) – This kid is well on his way to becoming more of a success story in Pittsburgh than Heinz’ ketchup. 11 strikeouts and no hits with just one walk in 6 innings? I’d say that qualifies as an excellent follow-up to his solid debut on May 11th. The only reason why I can’t rank him even higher than he already is is (stutter!) because of the innings cap. The guys mentioned on the pod this week how Pittsburgh will likely hold Skenes to a strict inning limit. I completely agree. The Pirates signing Mike Lavalliere to be their everyday catcher for the rest of the season would surprise me less than if Skenes threw more than 80-100 innings the rest of the way.
Clarke Schmidt 36 (NR) – I’ll be the first to admit that ranking 100 starting pitchers is a tough job, especially with guys going down to injury and others spiking to the surface at different intervals or speeds. I mentioned in the comments last week that Clarke Schmidt was a name that I had considered in my additions last week for the 80-100 section. Looking at his numbers on the season, I realize he should’ve been here for at least a couple of weeks already. The 8 innings of 3-hit shutout ball at Minnesota this week with 8 strikeouts made it even easier to insert him above guys like Kikuchi and Hunter Greene. He’s probably too far up for his debut here, but that’s why the list is fluid. Another gem like last week’s will at least keep him in this zone.
OOF
The following players dropped off the list this week.
- Max Scherzer (71) – Mad Max was moved to 60 day-IL and Bochy says they’re “backing him off”. Not encouraging.
- Spencer Strider (75) – The single Strider tear, but we need that room for active pitchers. Sad emoji
- Braxton Garett (76) – He was obliterated in both starts since his activation from the IL.
- Jose Butto (78) – Last week I said he might slip off the list sooner than later. He was optioned to AAA on Wednesday.
- Merrill Kelly (82) – Another 60-day IL guy removed for a healthy and productive one.
- Simeon Woods-Richardson (88) – Squeezed out by new names.
- Casey Mize (98) – This week’s loss at home against the Marlins was enough to push him out.
- Edward Cabrera (99) – EdCab will throw this week, but not timetable means he loses his spot here.
WHEE!
The following players launched into the Top 100 this week.
- Clarke Schmidt 36
- Alec Marsh 66
- Robert Gasser 78
- Ryan Weathers 91 – If a guy jumps on and off the list this much, does he even deserve to be mentioned here?
- Matt Manning 95
- Jose Soriano 99
- Alek Manoah 100 – The game yesterday squeaked him in ahead of some others. If anything at least it creates some controversy for our comments section!
That’s all for this week! I hope you enjoyed it! Next week, I’ll post the Top 100 Starting Pitchers with some write-ups on some of the arms that I think need a bit more attention than others. Then, I’ll try to keep cherry-picking names to highlight throughout the list as we progress through the season.
Drop some comments in the chat if you’re feeling extra fired up about some of the names I do (or don’t) have here. Have a great week!
Follow me @marmosdad on Twitter/X and Bluesky @marmosdad.bsky.social
