There’s never been more data for anything at our fingertips than what there is for us right now. Between this preponderance of data and the increasing competence of machine learning, there’s nothing we feel we can’t predict. Take the weather, for instance. While it’s an easy joke to fall back on that it’s just a guess, well…you’re right. Except it’s a guess based on data and analytics, the likes of which the Farmer’s Almanac never could have dreamed. While the forecasts are still wrong plenty, they’re at least wrong following better or more accurate processes.
Social media uses this data to fine-tune its algorithms to predict what content you want to see on your timeline, what people to follow, what ads to show you, etc. (Watch “The Social Dilemma” on Netflix for more on how we, the people, are the tool, not social media). If their predictions were wrong, they’d lose money and cease to be a thing. Anybody with a smartphone (which is pretty much everybody now) and their screen time on social media knows that the algorithmic predictions are right far more often than wrong.
Heck, even Grey and Rudy and the biggest brains at Razzball have spent countless hours in their mad scientists’ lab, making Hittertron, Streamonator, and even a rest-of-season Player Rater. They’ll probably be right way more often than wrong. But…can we find some potential “wrongs” and have our fantasy teams profit off of it as we head into the fantasy home stretch?
This is my last article before the MLB trade deadline, which means your leagues are starting to near their trade deadlines as you make your push to secure the chip or at least finish in the money. I’m going to look at each position and give you somebody the ROS Player Rater (referred to as PR the rest of the way) says should be higher than my suggestions, and if I make a persuasive enough case, maybe you can find some bargains as your trade deadlines approach. The best part is that any of these people you try to acquire, you wouldn’t do so in a 1-for-1 trade because perception would slant it toward your trade partner, so you could theoretically win both sides of any trade you propose. Disclaimer: you fool, you should listen to the robot instead of me.
C: the ROS PR has J.T. Realmuto as the 5th best catcher going forward, but there are a number of Cs the PR has rostered lower than JTR that I’d rather roster. For instance, Ben Rice is wayyyyyy down at 20th overall, and I think he’s got a great chance to out-produce JTR the rest of the way. Rice doesn’t have enough PAs to qualify for any percentile stuff on Statcast, but it paints a pretty rosy picture of his ROS outlook. I get that xStats aren’t super, but Rice’s xBA is one thousandth of a point less than JTR’s, and his batted ball data is almost all far superior to JTR’s (with Rice’s xSLG over 100 points higher than JTR’s). It’s not just batted ball quality, either; Rice’s decisions at the plate are far superior to JTR’s thus far, with a chase rate more than 10% less than JTR’s, an identical K%, and a BB% twice as high. Getting 1B work keeps him in the lineup, Yankee stadium is heaven for LHHs, and Rice is leading off against all RHPs. There are others I like more than JTR, such as Logan O’Hoppe, but the difference on the PR is much closer than the Rice value here.
1B: I drafted Matt Olson in a gladiator league, thinking he’d be my Russell Crowe and lead my team to decisive victory. It’s July 26, and I’ve completely had it with Olson. Olson’s average EV and HardHit% are still terrific, but none of that matters when you have a below-average Launch Angle, a horrid squared-up%, and K%/Chase%/Whiff%/BB% that are truly bad. The PR has Olson 4th overall among 1B going forward, but I think 13th-ranked Vinnie Pasquantino is going to outperform Olson ROS. We can start with Vinnie’s elite K%/BB%–94th percentile. While he doesn’t hit the ball quite as hard as Olson, Pasquantino is still in the upper-70s percentile in both HardHit% and average EV. Another way to look at it is that he isn’t impacting the ball quite as hard as Olson when he hits it, but he’s hitting it a heckuva lot more often, giving himself far more chances to give us counting stats that we desperately need. Olson is 8th percentile in squaring the ball up; Vinnie P is 94th percentile. If this were May, I’d probably be trying to buy Olson, but it’s winning time and this year’s data says Vinnie P is going to help you more than Olson in that pursuit.
2B: The PR has Luis Rengifo and Andres Gimenez back-to-back at 4th and 5th ROS, and to use one of Grey’s patented lines, o…………..kay. These guys do as much damage with the stick as my 13-year old does with her pool noodle. I get that Rengifo can play every day since he has literally (no, not literally) 74 positions he’s eligible at and the Angels offense is gross, but if they had any other options, his best position would be Left Out, meaning on the bench. Gimenez’s Statcast page is a work of art, if you were able to frame diarrhea (don’t try it). Instead, try Colt Keith on for size. Keith’s Statcast data is still kinda frowny faced, but in the last 8 weeks, he’s 7th overall on the PR, ahead of Rengifo and wayyyyy ahead of Gimenez. This may be obvious to anybody but the robot, but Jordan Westburg is 10th overall on the PR, and I’d easily rank him above either of Rengifo/Gimenez as well. His data is bonkers.
SS: I could do the same with Rengifo here but I’ve smacked that dead horse around enough. And honestly, I don’t have many nits to pick at SS with the ROS PR, so, onward.
3B: The PR has Alex Bregman at 6th and Manny Machado at 7th, but I’d happily take Alec Bohm over both of them straight-up right now. Bregman’s batted-ball data is Rengifoesque (though it comes with elite plate decisions), while Machado suffers from Olsonitis (the ability to make some really good contact, but just doesn’t make enough contact). Bohm’s K% is only 14.5%, which is fantastic, paired with an 18% Whiff%, which is also fantastic, so he’s giving you the elite Breggy Eye. He’s 75th percentile in both EV and HardHit%, with 98th percentile SquaredUp% and fantastic xStats, giving you the Manny Whammy with the stick. If you smushed Bregman and Machado together, you may get Bohm–sort of a Malex Bregado Frankenstein, is Bohm.
OF: I’d probably downgrade Kyle Tucker (ROS PR: 4th among OF) with him possibly being sidelined for most of August, so that’s low-hanging fruit; same with Michael Harris II (20th among OF). Corbin Carroll may also be low-hanging fruit, but at 7th overall and his pedigree, I think we can use him here as somebody we’d be taking some guys over. To begin, let’s look at Brenton Doyle (29th among OF on the ROS PR). The man is 17/20 with a .279 average on July 25! His xStats are great, he’s 76th percentile in Barrel%, 70th percentile in LA SweetSpot%, he’s 63rd percentile in HardHit%, and he’s playing in Colorado–what am I missing here, other than Bud Black is a doofus? Happily trade Carroll straight-up for him, though that ship has probably sailed this year. And my God, Brent Rooker?!?! The PR has him 43rd ROS but his Statcast page would be enough to have the PR robot soak a rag with WD-40, if you know what I mean. How in the world can the PR have guys like Masataka Yoshida, Ian Happ, and Byron Buxton well ahead of Rooker? I get that some other players like Spencer Steer (21st ROS) and Randy Arozarena (15th ROS) have stolen bases to help prop their value, but Rooker isn’t a zero there with six swipes himself, he’s competitive in runs, smoking these guys in HRs and BA? Doyle and Rooker should be heavily pursued over about half of the guys ahead of them on the ROS PR.
