It’s Tuesday and we only have 9 games on the main DraftKings slate. The research is going to be easier to sort through, but with fewer games on the slate, it’s always important to remember that ownership can congregate, and in a game where we are playing for first place (because tournament winnings are top heavy) we want to be finding ways to roster similarly good players at less ownership.
Looking at the research today, there are only a few places that stand out to me. I am going to identify those spots and then try to build unique lineups within those parameters that I set for myself. There are a lot of good starting pitchers on this slate. This takes a lot of offenses off the board for me, but I am left with the following:
- SD already has good plate discipline, but even more so in the last 30 days. Facing Mikolas, every batter is going to be putting the ball into play. They have average barrel and hard hit rates, but with a little luck, SD could be the stack you need.
- BOS has one of the best matchups as long as they can avoid the strikeout. Yariel Rodriguez has struggled with control and with BOS’s offense (fast and powerful) a pitcher cannot afford to give up free passes. TORs bullpen has not been good either. BOS should be a popular stack today.
- The Dodgers are back at full strength which makes them a scary team to face for any pitcher. Cole Irvin allows too much contact to succeed in this spot, however, the BAL bullpen will get the bulk of the innings here and they are pretty good.
- TOR gets a decent matchup and a good ballpark upgrade going to BOS. Some new blood in the lineup has them scoring runs at a higher clip, but they will need some luck to be a factor in tournaments today. Criswell has been beatable his second time through the order, and if you roster TOR, hopefully, they can take advantage of that.
- Finally, there is the Coors Field game between two anemic offenses, but also two poor pitching teams. I want to attack Roddery Munoz, but am very wary of rostering too many COL bats. MIA is a bit better, but Quantrill will not give in to hitters and could effectively quiet the Marlins bats. Norby and Burger will likely attract ownership and I am wary of playing Coors field if ownership seems to be going there.
I will probably stick to these stacking options tonight and try to fit in some 5 man stacks with 3 man stacks from another team in a solid spot. This does take time to do well, but don’t worry about playing all the “best” plays in your 5 man stacks. If the team is doing well it is likely that all players are benefiting. Finally, I will look for some attractive one offs who can produce “had to have it” scores.
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Dylan Cease, SP: $9,900 – The highest K rate on the slate is pitching in his home ballpark against a very average team. Dylan Cease is set up for a great score tonight if he can pitch deep into the game with 7-8 Ks a likely result. I don’t mind fading Cease if you want to spend more of your salary on offense, but he is my top pitching option tonight.
Logan Gilbert, SP: $9,400 – Gilbert has had a few hiccups lately, but pitching at home vs. a TB team with elevated K rates over the past 30 days is a nice spot. Gilbert should put up a solid score with the possibility of a 30 pointer if he is on. Note: the cheaper pitching options are fine, but you lose a little ceiling rostering guys who don’t pitch much past 5 IP.
Alejandro Kirk, C: $3,300 – The good points about this pick are his high walk rate and low K rate. Kirk puts the bat to the ball. He has been hitting the ball decently hard and even barreling 8% over the past 30 days. Kirk does hit the ball on the ground too often, but in a game where his team is scoring runs, a hot shot through the hole can produce RBIs. I am most likely to roster Kirk in a stack.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B: $5,700 – When you look at leaderboards for 1B, the thing about Vlad that stands out is his low K rate. He has all the great hard hit data you could want, but what makes him most attractive at this salary and position is his ability to avoid the K. Vladdy up tonight!
Will Wagner, 2B: $2,500 – You do not have to break the bank at this position to get a guy who hits the ball hard consistently and manages to avoid Ks. Wagner is more easily rostered as part of a stack, but as you can see, I might be leaning that way tonight.
Manny Machado, 3B: $5,100 – There are a lot of great 3B options at the top, but Machado is as solid of a hitter as they come. He will have no problem putting the ball in play, and hopefully the Padres have plenty of guys on base for him as well.
Corey Seager, SS: $5,200 – The TEX offense has not been good this year, but Seager is still one of the best hitters in the league. In fact, his 18% barrel rate over the past 30 days significantly leads his position. Seager hits lefties as well as righties and he is in a very good spot tonight. He is a one off player for me.
Jackson Merrill, OF: $4,700 – The rookie continues to do great things with his at bats. His barrel rate is impressive (19% over the last 30 days) and he hits the ball in the air a lot. He is also able to change his approach with guys on base to get the runs driven in. I am confident every time I can roster Merrill that I will get something good.
Sam Hilliard, OF: $3,700 – I want to find some spots in the OF where I can save money and with Doyle likely to be out again, Hilliard should get a full set of at bats today. His K rate is much more palatable in Coors and his hard hit data is very good, especially for his price. Play Hilliard as a one off or as a part of Rockies stacks.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There is a possibility of rain tonight in St. Louis. Reports have it likely staying west of the ballpark, but if they do not, they could cause some problems for that game between STL and SD.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The BOS-TOR game stands out when you look at Vegas lines. That should draw a lot of attention to those teams, BOS more so than TOR. I do think the TOR offense is capable of scoring runs, and I will be rostering some of them, however, BOS is the premiere stack tonight. TEX also surprisingly gets a good team total for tonight vs. Crochet. We all know Crochet won’t pitch long, but he should be good while he is in there. It’s hot in Chicago today, but I’m not sure that TEX offense is any good.
